Unfortunately, wildfire season isn’t waiting for summer this year. By the end of May, U.S. wildfires had already burned nearly double the 10-year average acreage. With conditions this active even before peak season arrives, now is the time for agents to raise wildfire liability with clients, because as the season progresses, the conversation will get even harder to have.
The 2026 Wildfire Season Outlook
The National Interagency Fire Center released its national fire potential outlook on June 1, and it points to above-normal fire potential across much of the West through September. A few factors are driving this forecast:
- Record-low snowpack has left fuels exceptionally dry across much of the West
- Drought now covers more than 60% of the country
- A developing El Niño pattern is expected to bring hotter, drier conditions through fall
The risk is most elevated in:
- The Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and the Great Basin (Utah and Nevada now, expanding into Idaho and Wyoming as summer goes on)
- The Southwest, which should peak in late June through early July before monsoon moisture arrives
- Southeast Texas and western Louisiana, where above-normal potential is expected to build by July
California is already showing what an active start looks like with more than 1,700 wildfires and over 50,000 burned acres before mid-June. The bigger point for agents? This risk isn’t staying inside the states people usually think of as “wildfire states.” It’s building in the Plains, the Southeast, and along the Gulf Coast too.
How This Is Shaping Property Insurance Wildfire Risk
Wildfire mitigation used to earn clients a discount on premium, but now accounts are being more closely scrutinized. Many carriers treat defensible space and fire-resistant construction as the baseline for writing or renewing a policy in higher-risk areas. The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety has built its wildfire preparedness program around exactly this shift, and it’s now active in 14 states, not just California. Underwriting has also become more granular. Carriers are looking at roofing material, vegetation clearance, vent type, and proximity to wildland fuel property by property, not zip code by zip code. Two similar buildings on the same block can land in very different pricing tiers because of it.
Coverage is harder to find in the highest-risk areas, and wildfire insurance claims are getting more expensive. Some carriers have pulled back where exposure is steepest, pushing more property owners toward E&S lines or state-backed plans of last resort. Swiss Re’s latest sigma report found wildfire is now the fastest-growing catastrophe peril globally, with insured losses climbing roughly 12% a year. Submissions that come in with clear, documented risk improvements tend to move faster and land better terms.
A Wildfire Preparedness Checklist for Client Conversations
The basics of wildfire mitigation haven’t changed, but with underwriters treating them like business as usual, it’s worth running through these questions with clients before the season peaks:
- Is there a cleared buffer of defensible space around structures, free of dry vegetation and debris?
- Does the property have Class A roofing, non-combustible siding, and ember-resistant vents?
- Are there gaps in the building envelope—unsealed vents, eaves, or decking—that embers could exploit?
- Is any mitigation work already documented with photos or records?
- Is there an evacuation plan, and has it actually been practiced?
- Are there coverage gaps worth surfacing now, before a claim forces the conversation?
These details can help you prep for submission and avoid any surprises.
Staying Ahead as the Season Develops
Wildfire risk doesn’t stay in one season, region, or property type anymore. It’s showing up in places property owners don’t always expect, and the wildfire insurance market is adjusting accordingly. At MiniCo, our program teams stay close to these conditions so agents and their clients have what they need to manage exposure and protect their properties, including self-storage facilities, nonprofits and social service organizations, agribusiness operations, artisan contractors, and landscaping contractors. With the right risk management strategy, detailed preparedness, and the right coverage in place, the 2026 wildfire season should be a lot more manageable.
